R&AW's Clandestine Diplomacy Puts Peace In Manipur On Horizon?

Cladenstine Diplomacy is a covert action involving silent, deniable communications under the garb of diplomacy. Such covert actions, dubbed as diplomacy, often supplement negotiations and Intelligence work in times of crisis. This diplomacy has made Kissinger  moment- a strategic and diplomatic success for R&AW Chiefs. Beginning from R.N Kao, A.K Verma, G.S Bajpai, and C.D Sahay to modern-day chief Samant Goel under whom the agency saw a new dawn of the rising sun. Most notably Indo-Pak LoC deal was negotiated in a clandestine setup in 2021 by the then Special Secretary R&AW.

With Manipur gradually coming to peace, present R&AW Chief Ravi Sinha can create a Kissinger moment by crafting the decades-old agency's formula to hit the final shot in crisis management.

The Research& Analysis Wing(R&AW) had a long history of organising successful clandestine diplomacy, especially in crisis situations. R&AW's handling of the Northeast insurgency from the late 1980s to the early 1990s serves as a spectacular example of how the agency cut down insurgents' cross-border strategic depth, weakened their ability to sustain themselves, and eventually led to surrender.

Former Special Secretary R&AW and senior IPS B.B. Nandy, who was overseeing Southeast Asia as the agency's Bangkok station chief, began R&AW's clandestine shuttle diplomacy from late 80s to 90s to cultivate assets and influence Mayanmar-based rebel outfits.

R&AW tapped the Kachin Independence Army(KIA) to not allow anti-India rebels like NSCN, Assasemes, and Mizo National Front. This clandestine outreach to KIA yielded significant results, as one of the battle-hardened outfits, KIA, ensured that anti-India rebel cadres didn't get safe heavens. A top source in the intelligence establishment said this move almost eliminated the strategic depth of anti-India rebel groups and weakened their ability to sustain and strike.

The source added that this gave counter-insurgency forces substantial space to mount effective offensive operations in the North East region. Operation Golden Bird, Operation Bajrang and  Operation Rhino gave promising results in dismantling rebels and drug cartels for a brief period of time.

A top source said, "Negotiations and clandestine tactical support while maintaining deniability" were hallmarks of clandestine diplomacy in the North East during the heydays of insurgency. Sources add that a similar arrangement must be deployed as there is possible room for it. It has been said that Chin rebel groups fighting the Myanmar military are training Kuki militants by crossing the Indo-Myanmar border. Chin Militants are battle-hardened rebel groups sharing large tribal bonds with Kukis and Mizos. Source added that "stepping up offensives in Manipur at the moment and not utilizing effective negotiating opportunities would be like burning own hands".

R&AW, way back in 1989, had some clandestine and tactical influence over this group, which should be tapped to disallow arms cartel movement and persuade rebels in Manipur, especially Kuki, to surrender, at least cutting their strategic depth as the agency did decades back through the Kachin Independence Army(KIA) to eliminate multiple outfits' resources and safe heavens. Top sources said that such measures are quietly simmering at the apex level, and if they succeed, a peace accord in Manipur will soon be on the horizon.