As Parag Jain Takes The Reins Of R&AW: A Road of Challenges and Calibrations

This is the second time that the R&AW chief may not have received an extension, especially given the trend where spymasters typically receive at least one extension. However, the government remained silent regarding Sinha until the end, and silence was finally broken with a new appointment at the helm of India's premier Intelligence agency.

As Parag Jain takes over, he has two crucial tasks ahead: first, calibrating the agency, and second, preparing the agency for combating new challenges. Top sources indicate that the agency developed its covert offensive capabilities and even utilised them extensively. Still, there was a slight chill on the guns under Sinha's regime, with systemic operational delays, a top source said. Jain's first task should hone the covert offensive and run it at full pace. The operational priority and the current security landscape suggest that the agency should go on the offensive to preempt emerging threats, as the South Asian region, especially after the India-Pakistan conflict in May, is reeling under a heightened security anxiety situation.

While this covert offensive affair continues, Jain should also engage in preventive diplomacy as a means of deterrence against adversaries, as Samant Goel did. Jain has strong expertise in Canadian and South Asian affairs; he can utilise both tools to monitor threats and eliminate them. Top sources said that preventive diplomacy, combined with covert offensive operations, will help balance relations and counter threats simultaneously. Until now, either preventive diplomacy has been stressed too much or covert offensive has been too high. There is a need for balance to avoid controversies that unnecessarily got the agency into trouble years ago. Jain can balance relations and influence while tactfully striking when required, a top source said.

Challenges are quite unconventional in South Asia and beyond, where subconventional threats are becoming more impactful and relevant, such as drone warfare and technology in warfare. Similarly, the danger of a charm offensive under transactional diplomacy by the US and the West is also a sign of concern that a mix of covert offensive and preventive diplomacy tactics can counter.  Parag Jain has two years to turn the tables by expanding R&AW's reach and blending diplomacy into it, achieving not only tactical success but also strategic success.